The Winds of Change: Reconfiguring India-Pakistan Relations

Dipak Kurmi

(The writer can be reached at dipakkurmiglpltd@gmail.com)

Is it time for Prime Minister Modi to overcome his reservations and unequivocally state, “Yes, I Will,” in relation to Pakistan?

In the past 48 hours, significant developments have unfolded. In Punjab, the Aam Aadmi Party is solidifying its position while the Shiromani Akali Dal continues to weaken, with its MLAs notably not aligning with their previous allies, the BJP. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, whose family origins trace back to Amritsar, has extended an invitation to Prime Minister Modi to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit scheduled to take place in Islamabad this October.

The Ministry of External Affairs has acknowledged receiving the invitation but has not yet disclosed its response. It is also possible that the Pakistani authorities have publicized this news to generate internal pressure in India—appealing to sentimental liberals who thrive on diplomatic engagement and the candlelight vigil supporters at Attari-Wagah, who are often eager to advocate for dialogue.

The predictability of the critics is equally apparent. They argue that Modi should neither go to Islamabad nor engage with Pakistan, asserting that the nation remains an untrustworthy adversary. If you subscribe to this viewpoint, you might want to pack your bags and head to Gurdaspur, where you can reaffirm your stance of hostility.

In this region, where drones hover perilously close to the Zero Line—just a few kilometres from the India-Pakistan border—it’s clear that the high-grade white heroin, known locally as chitta, being transported by these hexacopters is being orchestrated by the Pakistani authorities. This is just one of the many tactics used to conduct a ‘proxy war.’

Another method involves sending trained terrorists into the Jammu region. Military analysts suggest that the recent attacks on Indian soldiers and paramilitary forces, which have resulted in the deaths of around 18 soldiers this summer alone, are part of a deliberate strategy by the Pakistani state. This approach aims to divert attention from the Kashmir valley.

So, what is the course of action for Prime Minister Modi? Should he accept the invitation to visit Pakistan, or should he decline?

Recall that a decade ago, Modi extended an invitation to Nawaz Sharif, then the Prime Minister of Pakistan, for his swearing-in ceremony in Delhi. Sharif attended the event despite strong opposition from his own influential military leaders. Upon returning to Pakistan, Sharif faced significant backlash, with rumours circulating that his political position was jeopardized for shaking hands with Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, during the 2002 riots that saw the deaths of over a thousand Muslims. Sharif defended his decision by stating that, as the Prime Minister of South Asia’s most powerful nation, Modi was a key figure, and given the historical relationship between India and Pakistan, it was his responsibility to extend a gesture of peace.

The truce was short-lived. On January 2, 2016, Pakistani terrorists launched an assault on the Pathankot airbase. In response, Modi swiftly declared a suspension of all dialogue with Pakistan until cross-border terrorism ceased. The diplomatic channels were abruptly shut down.

Yet, eight years later, cross-border terrorism remains unresolved. Recent terror incidents in Jammu this summer suggest that someone is still pulling the strings from behind the scenes. During the Kargil War in the summer of 1999, a senior Pakistani general famously boasted to then-army chief Gen Pervez Musharraf, “Uski tooti mere haath main hai” (I hold the lever in my hands), indicating Pakistan’s control over cross-border terrorism. These conversations were captured by Indian intelligence, transcribed, and presented to then-Pakistan Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz during his stop in Delhi on his way to Beijing. Aziz was attempting to justify the unjustifiable—the Pakistani invasion at Kargil—when he was confronted with the tapes. Faced with this evidence, he had no further defense to offer.

PM Modi has been grappling with the same dilemma since 2016. He is keenly aware that the Pakistani state’s fundamental nature remains unchanged and is unlikely to evolve soon. If there were any uncertainties, the recent, deliberately orchestrated attempt to overthrow Sheikh Hasina in neighbouring Bangladesh—an event for which she is blamed for allowing tensions to escalate—should provide him with a clearer view of the perilous environment surrounding India.

Should he persist with escalating measures—such as the 2016 surgical strikes and the 2019 missile strikes in Balakote—despite the evident fact that Pakistan will continually seek new methods to inflict damage on India? Or should he consider following Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s example and attempt to forge peace with a country that Vajpayee once went to war against?

The dynamics between India and Pakistan are shifting once more. While Modi continues to hold strong as a third-term Prime Minister, he has had to make significant efforts to court both Russia and the US over the Ukraine issue. It remains uncertain whether the major powers are encouraging Modi to rekindle ties with Pakistan, which might explain the timing of the invitation to Islamabad. Despite the SCO being a pro-China organization, this could be a way for the Americans to gauge the situation. They likely want to prevent Pakistan from falling entirely under China’s influence.

Then there’s Kashmir. Several India-Pakistan-US Track Two discussions have revealed that Pakistan might be open to moderating its strong criticism of the abrogation of Article 370 and reengaging in dialogue if India holds elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Interestingly, elections are indeed scheduled to take place there in September.

Ultimately, Modi should decide whether to visit Islamabad based on his own judgement and the potential domestic impact. For instance, such a move could enhance his standing with the influential candlelighting supporters at Attari-Wagah. Additionally, Modi understands that confident leaders and nations are willing to engage in dialogue with anyone, including their adversaries. With crucial state elections approaching, a loss in Haryana and Maharashtra could further intensify the perception of the BJP and PM Modi being politically cornered.

Aside from the genuine catharsis of having an open face-to-face dialogue with an adversary, consider the potential boost to Modi’s popularity if he were to visit Pakistan.