Trajectory of regionalism

The Bodoland People' Front (BPF) joining the Congress-led grand alliance has poured cold waters on the efforts by the new regional parties in Assam to unite the regional parties for the Assembly polls in Assam. The BPF joining the grand alliance has led to restoration of the Bodo political party's alliance with the Congress. The BPF was a coalition partner of the Congress for eight years from 2006 to 2014 when it had parted ways with the grand old party. The relation with the BJP did not last for full term and two fought each other in the recent elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). The Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), United People's Party, Liberal and Gana Suraksha Party (GSP) have agreed to forge pre-poll alliance with the BJP but will be junior partners in the alliance. The BPF emerged as the single largest player even though it had to pave the way for government formation at BTC to the post poll alliance of the BJP-UPPL-GSP alliance. The BPF, therefore, will have high stakes as much as the UPPL in the 12 Assembly constituencies in the Bodoland Territorial Region. The performance of the two Bodo political parties in the two different political camps of the BJP and the Congress will be crucial in formation of the next government in the state in the event of a fractured mandate. The two new parties – Assam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Raijor Dal will now be the only two parties which will be distinct regional force in the election as the key regional players have sided with pre-poll alliances of either the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or the opposition Congress. The AJP was holding talks with the BPF to explore all regional parties other than the allies of the Congress and the BJP. The seat-sharing talks among constituents of all the three distinct electoral alliances is not going to be easy as not much time is left for the first phase of nominations, polling for which is scheduled on March 27. The AJP and Raijor Dal ruled out any alliance with the Congress, AIUDF and the national parties but the BPF did not have problem with either the Congress, or the AIUDF. The uncompromising stand of the AJP and Raijor Dal rejecting the appeal by the grand alliance to join it as it includes the AIUDF may shape new regional aspirations but how far it will influence the electors is still not clear. The AJP claimed to have forged alliance with the Autonomous State Demand Committee (ASDC) that has organizational bases in the hill districts, but the two parties are yet to make joint announcement about the understanding even after the dates were announced by the Election Commission. The grand alliance is leaving no stone unturned to champion the regional issues like the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, the core clauses of the Assam Accord but failure of the successive Congress-led governments at the Centre and in the states has also been capitalized by both the BJP-led alliance as well as the AJP-Raijor Dal combine to puncture holes into such campaigns. There are clear signs that the issues of the Assam Accord and other regional issues such as sealing of India-Bangladesh border, CAA, NRC twin problems of flood and erosion which are critical to the state and interests of indigenous people will be occupying key space of electioneering during the run-up to the polls. Performance of two new regional parties will be crucial in determining if regionalism as an idea will continue to occupy key position in the electoral politics in the state independent of national political parties or it will be just part of political agenda of the two major national players. In the public perception, the AGP has already lost its identity as independent regional party as it failed to impress upon its ally BJP on the issue of the implementation of the core clauses of the Assam Accord. Such a perception takes shape independent of electoral performances as people decide their electoral mandate not on one issue but multiple issues. Besides, other factors like vote transfer, organizational strength of parties, electioneering also play crucial role in determining the outcome. A strong regional force is needed to raise the burning issues of the state, both inside and outside the State Assembly and on the floor of the parliament, which are often overshadowed by issues pushed by the national parties. The national parties face the charge that they go back on their promises on regional issues. In a state like Assam with smaller indigenous communities facing existential threat to their language, culture and heritage, the regional forces as key shareholders of power can do the balancing act. This Assembly polls will have a bearing on the trajectory of regionalism in Assam.