What does Trump’s victory mean for India?

Amitava Mukherjee

(The author is a senior journalist and commentator)

Donald Trump, who would be the next President of the United States, stressed three things during his campaign: America is for the white people, he (Trump) would bring back the “golden period” of the US, and immigration to the US will be stopped. Kamala Harris could not counter any of these Trump assertions.

American people, at least a large portion of it, are not very comfortable with the spectre of Uncle Sam losing his preeminence in world affairs. They are apprehensive of the rise of various multilateral bodies challenging the US.

But for India, the ascension of Donald Trump into the US President’s chair can be viewed with a certain amount of relief, as Trump’s personal chemistry with the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is known to be good, while Kamala Harris would have been largely an unknown customer to New Delhi. In 2019, Trump had hosted Modi in front of 50,000 spectators in Houston, Texas. In a return gesture, Trump was felicitated by Modi in Gujarat in 2020.

True, on the trade and business front, Trump as the US President may pose some problems to India with his ‘America First’ policy. But that does not outweigh the advantage that India is sure to get in the strategic and geopolitical arena, as Trump is known to be much harder on China than what Joe Biden is known to be. Both militarily and diplomatically, this will give India wider manoeuvring space in her relations with China.

Trump has already left enough indications that he wants New Delhi and particularly the Modi government by his side in matters of international relations. Solely with this end in view, he has condemned the reported attacks on Hindus in Bangladesh. This not only gave him electoral dividends as the big Indian diaspora in the US voted for the Republican candidate, but it also means that in South Asian geopolitical theatre, India will be helped by his presence in the US. It is now common knowledge that with the exit of Hasina Wazed from Bangladesh’s political scenario. India has been forced to take a backseat there, and this vacuum is being rapidly filled up by China. Trump’s statement underscores the fact that he understands the importance of Bangladesh in Indian Ocean affairs and is prepared to stand by India in the latter’s attempts to retrieve her diplomatic and geopolitical space in Bangladesh.

Trump’s closeness with Vladimir Putin is well known. This may have its reflections in the course of the Ukraine war in the days to come. But this Trump-Putin reported bonhomie may give India another advantage. India is importing crude oil from Russia at cheaper prices, defying intense US pressures. Now this pressure might ease, and this will give India a much needed breather in the energy front.

It will be interesting to watch as to what extent Trump can take his trade wars with India and China to any logical conclusion. With China, he is almost certain to do so. But this time India may be a different proposition to him. In his earlier term as president, he had stopped India’s preferential market access in the US, accusing New Delhi of not giving the US proper market access in her own lands. This had hurt India’s steel and aluminium industry, particularly at that time. So India’s IT, pharmaceutical, and textile industries may have some anxious moments in the days to come.

In addition, Trunp’s policies can hit India very hard in the arena of immigration. Around 10 lakh Indians are now residing in the USA, awaiting Green Cards. So far, their children born in America were legally entitled to become American citizens. Now, it is quite probable that Trump may repeal this provision, and thus a huge number of Indian-origin wards will lose their American citizenship. These families’ anxieties do not end here. Trump will probably try to deport not just illegal immigrants but also those who are now living in the US under some kind of legal cover.

It is to be watched how Washington and New Delhi strike a balance in this arena. But America needs India badly in QUAD and in the Indo-Pacific. So chances of reconciliation on the economic front are there.