3rd Wave of Covid Likely to Strike This Month, to Reach Peak in October: IIT Research

Yet the danger still looms large, but according to experts, India must brace itself to witness another rise in Covid-19 cases as it has already step into August. With the third wave rising with less than 100,000 cases per day, nearly 150,000 in the worst scenario will be affected everyday if protocols are not followed seriously, researchers said.

According to the national and international media reports, researchers led by Mathukumalli Vidyasagar and Manindra Agrawal at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in Hyderabad and Kanpur respectively that the surge in Covid-19 cases will push the third wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which also has the potentiality to curve-hike during the month of October.

Professor Vidyasagar told the media that states with high Covid-19 cases, such as Kerala and Maharashtra, could "bend the picture."

However, according to them the third wave of Covid-19 is expected to be less brutal compared to the previous second wave where the country was at the brink of reporting over 400,000 cases on a daily basis and resided down after that. The prediction by the researchers, who accurately forecast the lessening of the surge in Covid-19 cases earlier this year, is based on a mathematical model.

Earlier in the month of May, Professor Vidyasagar, of the IIT Hyderabad said, "India's coronavirus outbreak could peak in the coming days based on the mathematical model. Our predictions are that the peak will come within a few days. As per current projections, we should hit 20,000 cases per day by the end of June. We will revise this as needed."

However, in April, Professor Vidyasagar's research team had predicted that the wave would peak by the middle of last month was incorrect. He wrote on social media that it was because of inaccurate parameters as "the pandemic was changing rapidly, even wildly, until about a week ago."

It may be mentioned that India has already reported 41,831 Covid-19 cases and 541 deaths on Sunday last, even as the Centre cautioned 10 Indian states, within which Kerala, Maharashtra and northeastern regions are at the risk of rising infections. The team of researchers have asked these flagged states to take every possible step to restrain the spread of the coronavirus spread.

According to new studies in the field of virology, experts are of the view that a 'Delta' variant of the coronavirus, which has the ability to spread as conveniently as chickenpox and can be passed on by vaccinated people, which can fuel the steep hike.