IMD Forecasts 'Normal’ Monsoon In 2023, 'Below Normal' Rains In NW India

NEW DELHI: Below normal June-to-September monsoon rains are expected over most parts of northwest India, including the grain bowls of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, said the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday.

IMD, in its second forecast for the 2023 southwest monsoon season, said monsoon rains are, however, predicted to be 'normal' over the main rain-fed dependent zones and all remaining parts of India.

The impact of the rains would be more on agriculture as irrigation systems are used in much of northwest India, particularly in the major paddy-growing states of Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh.

Reiterating its April forecast, the IMD said overall monsoon rains will be normal at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

A model error of plus and minus four percent is included in the forecast.

The possibility of normal rainfall during the June-to-September period has been pegged at 43 per cent, while that of above-normal rainfall is put at 11 per cent, IMD said.

The below-normal and deficient rainfall probability is 25 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, according to the met agency.

It was also predicted by the IMD that the southwest monsoon over the rainfed-regions of India or the 'monsoon convergence zone', is expected to be normal at 96-106 per cent of the LPA.

This should be a welcome forecast for policy makers and agriculturists as the region is known for growing pulses and oilseeds in bulk quantities during the ‘kharif’ season.

The IMD announced that, "The monsoon will remain normal to above normal over south peninsular India, some areas of East Central India and also North-East India while it might remain below normal over North-West India, adjoining west Central India.”

Chance of development of the El Nino weather pattern in the 2023 monsoon season was pegged by the department at 90 per cent.

For the month of June, the IMD predicted rainfall across the country to be 'below normal' at 92 per cent of the LPA. The LPA of June month rainfall, or the average rainfall between 1971 and 2020, is said to be 165.44 mm.

Below normal June rains over most parts of the country and above normal in southern India has been forecast.

With conditions becoming more favourable for progress of southwest monsoon over the Arabian Sea, the IMD is hoping that the onset will be as forecasted earlier.

Monsoon flow could be strengthened by a cyclone that has developed over the Arabian Sea around May 29, said IMD. The cyclone could push the onset even ahead of its forecast date, it hoped.

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