What Does Afghanistan Collapse and Taliban's Rise Mean for India?

NEW DELHI: Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid has in a recent news conference in Afghanistan declared that the "war" is over. Another Taliban leader Anas Haqqani echoed Mujahid and gave the same declaration on Twitter. The war, which had begun around two decades ago with the US invasion, has ended indeed, but does that mean utopian peace now? Well, not really. The scenario is much more complicated than what is being perceived by the masses.

THE COLLAPSE

The collapse of the Ashraf Ghani regime and its security forces was not a totally unanticipated incident. Every serious expert and every well-aware US and NATO official realized well that the regime and its forces would suffer a collapse once the US and NATO military head for withdrawal.

It was estimated that the predicted collapse would happen in a few months to one or two years. However, the collapse which took place in just a few days came as a surprise. Some US officials later described this as an intelligence failure. It was not expected that the Ghani regime would surrender helplessly so early.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR INDIA?

As per experts, New Delhi was a bit late in opening channels with the Taliban. If India could be a little pro-active in its attitude and took a more balanced and sagacious approach in Afghanistan instead of placing its bets on the Ghani regime, the situation would have been much different.

However, things have not become too bad for India and New Delhi yet and it can still try to maneuver through its presently difficult position by increasing its diplomacy with the Taliban to protect its interests in Afghanistan. As far as India's contributions are concerned, the nation has made valuable contributions in Afghanistan, such as building dams and libraries, but it needs to develop and maintain cordial relations with the Taliban which will now take care of the dams, libraries, and everything made by India in that country.

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