2021 poll battle: Can BJP penetrate into AIUDF citadel of Hailakandi?

SILCHAR: Of interest for pollsters to watch has been the topsy-turvy of change in the Muslim dominated constituencies of Assam in the wake of the emergence of AIUDF in 2005. One of the important factors behind it is the shift of minority votes in favour of Badaruddin Ajmal's party which he himself described as the political outfit for Muslims during his campaign for 2016 polls in the Katigorah constituency of Cachar. This stance and ploy worked to consolidate the voters of religious minority disillusioned by Congress.

The Muslim card has helped Ajmal, the party supremo, to make AIUDF a strong political contender in the electoral firmament of Assam, the strongest fort of Congress, which since 1991 made space for BJP and now AIUDF. In this power tussle, AGP, the regional party supposed to be the voice of people of the state after being in power for two terms went awry of its declared policy. The party has to rest on the shoulder of BJP to become its ally in 2016.

AIUDF politics has impacted most the minority dominated Hailakandi district of Barak Valley by netting all the three constituencies of Hailakandi, Katlicherra and Algapur, upsetting the dominance of Congress and BJP. This also reflects on how fast changing demographic structure is adversely telling on the poll prospect of national parties. An AIUDF leader was euphoric to say after 2016 assembly elections 'Hailakandi from now on will be under our administration.'

There was no exaggeration in his assertion. AIUDF on its own, as ground report indicates, is desperate to repeat the performance of 2016. MLA of Hailakandi Anwar Hussain Laskar is upbeat to form coordination with his counterparts of Algapur and Katlicherra and decide the strategy to take on their main adversary BJP. On this seat, the nerve centre of the 3 constituencies, Badaruddin Ajmal can set his candidate on path to victory provided the assured votes of his party do not split.

An analysis of the poll results of 2016 of Hailakandi shows AIUDF candidate Anwar Hussain Laskar in a multi corner contest could beat his nearest BJP rival Soumyajit Dutta Chowdhury by 2608 votes only while Congress contender Anamuddin Laskar was relegated to fourth place. It was Independent candidate Zakir Hussain Laskar who did upset the game plan of AIUDF to score big by bagging 15,633 votes. Badaruddin Ajmal knows his party is strong enough to challenge BJP without going for any adjustment with Congress in any of the three seats of Hailakandi district.

From all indications, Anwar Hussain Laskar is all set to be the repeat candidate for AIUDF. BJP leadership is confident of regaining the seat which has remained elusive for the party after its maiden win in 1991 elections. Soumyajit Dutta Chowdhury, a tough fighter, is likely to be again the choice of saffron party. Congress is in dilemma over the selection, looking at the poor performance of its candidate Anamuddin Laskar. Congress leaders will be happy to save their faces by a tie up with Badaruddin Ajmal.

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