BTC: How BJP's masterstroke will pave way for party in 2021 Assembly polls

When the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government at the Centre signed the historic Bodo Accord earlier this year, many described it as the 'final and comprehensive solution' to the longstanding Bodo issue. Unarguably so. But in that landmark event, the saffron party also found a base to start preparing for the Assam state assembly elections that are scheduled to be held early next year.

The much-awaited elections to the Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) follow the Bodo Accord. The outcome of these local tribal council elections has therefore been seen as crucial in the upcoming Assembly elections.

The elections were supposed to be held earlier in April this year, but had to be postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. After the polls were held in two phases on December 7 and 10, the counting of votes was done on Saturday. The results decided the fate of 241 candidates who contested for the 40 constituencies across four districts of the Bodoland Territorial Region (BTR) under the BTC.

The incumbent Bodoland People's Front (BPF) won 17 seats to emerge as the single largest party while the Pramod Boro-led United People's Party Liberal (UPPL) bagged 12 seats, BJP got nine seats and Kokrajhar Lok Sabha MP Naba Sarania-led Gana Suraksha Party (GSP) managed to win only one seat in the polls. The lone Congress winner, Sajal Kumar Sinha, later switched sides to join BJP, taking the saffron party's tally to 10.

A day after the results, after much speculations, UPPL leader Boro was named as the new CEM of BTC. It was also revealed that the UPPL, BJP and GSP will together form the next council in Bodoland.

Before the polls, when the BJP announced that it would contest on its own, many knew that the party would do more than just open its account but no one thought that it would become a major player. They probably missed out on the fact that the BJP was already riding high on its success of the accord signed under its rule. Combined with the reality that the incumbent BPF was facing a wave of anti-incumbency, having ruled the region for close to 17 years, the BJP knew that its path was well laid out.

Bodoland has a sizeable population of non-Bodo communities. As per some estimates, they account for close to 70% of the population. The BJP knew that by dividing the non-tribal votes, which earlier used to go to the BPF, other parties such as the UPPL would benefit.

The BTR comprises 12 Assembly seats out of the 126 in Assam. As such, it is a given that whoever emerges victorious in the BTC elections has also the potential to be a kingmaker in the Assembly polls. By allying with the BJP, the UPPL indirectly ensured that they would be on good terms – and thereby ensure a steady flow of funds – with those ruling the state.

The UPPL, meanwhile, had the support of the powerful All Bodo Students' Union (ABSU). Party leader Pramod Boro had been the president of the students' body since 2009 till February this year when he joined UPPL. The ABSU was instrumental in brokering the peace agreement and has been seen as a harbinger of peace and development in the region. It was just a matter of time before the people wanted to 'reward' the actual people who made it happen.

The semi-finals are over. Now, all eyes are on the finals – the state Assembly elections in early 2021.

Also read: BTC elections result 2020: Will BJP's lotus bloom in BPF's Hagrama turf or UPPL hold fort?