Northeast could become the Next Hotspot of the Ongoing Second Wave of COVID-19: Data

New Delhi: A forecasting tool based on data stated that the northeast could become the next target of the ongoing second wave of COVID-19.

Prof Anup Malani, University of Chicago, and Development Data Lab, a research organisation working on open data, calculates the reproductive rate for the COVID-19 outbreak each day. Reproductive rate is a measure of how many people an infected person is likely to infect in a community.

As per the sources, the calculations show that the reproductive rate value is greater than 1 for all northeastern states.

While researching about the northeastern states, the reproductive rate value of Tripura is 1.36, which means 100 cases could increase to over 5,000 in two weeks. The data shows that there are 15 states and Union Territories (UTs) where this value was more than 1 on May 21.

According to the reports, the reproductive rate value of Meghalaya is 1.31 and Arunachal Pradesh at 1.26. Apart from the eight northeastern states, Lakshadweep and Tamil Nadu are also present in the list of ten states or UTs with the highest reproductive rate values.

Other states and UTs that have a higher than 1 value for this indicator are Odisha, Puducherry, Andhra Pradesh, Ladakh, and West Bengal, where the reproductive rate ranged between 1.02 and 1.06.

For the remaining 18 states and UTs for which the forecast is available, reproductive rate was less than 1, indicating a declining future course of fresh cases.

The list of states with calculated reproductive rate values less than 1 includes - Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, all of which have been recent epicentres of the ongoing outbreak.

The reports stated that out of the 579 districts for which data was available as of May 21, the reproductive rate value was greater than 1.3 for 25, of which 19 are in the country's northeast. At 1.6, Upper Subansiri district of Arunachal Pradesh had the highest reproductive rate value. The value was 1.5 or above for Champhai in Mizoram, and Khowai and Sepahijala in Tripura.

However, the six districts outside the northeast with reproductive rate values higher than 1.3 were Chitradurga in Karnataka, Osmanabad in Maharashtra, Boudh in Odisha and Perambalur, Ariyalur and Tirupathur in Tamil Nadu.

Also Read: Arunachal Pradesh reports highest single-day spike of 394 COVID-19 cases

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