Regional parties look set to assert themselves across Northeast in 2024

GUWAHATI/AGARTALA: The regional parties in the northeastern states are expected to play a significant role in next year's Lok Sabha elections, even as the BJP remains in an advantageous position by virtue of running the government in four out of the eight states in the region. The BJP is the ruling party in Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, and Tripura, while its allies are governing the remaining four states -- Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) in Nagaland, Mizo National Front (MNF) in Mizoram, National People's Party (NPP) in Meghalaya, and Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) in Sikkim.

Though the saffron party is ruling Tripura, the political situation in the state is a little different, with the tribal-based Tipra Motha Party (TMP) securing 13 seats in the 60-member state assembly that went to the polls recently, emerging as the second largest party after the BJP, which got 32 seats, down by four seats from its 2018 tally.

The TMP, after capturing the politically important Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council (TTAADC) in April 2021, has been demanding the elevation of the areas of the autonomous body by granting a 'Greater Tipraland State' or separate state status under Articles 2 and 3 of the Constitution. Of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in the eight northeastern states, 14 are with the BJP, while Congress has four.

The All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) in Assam, the NDPP in Nagaland, the MNF in Mizoram, the NPP in Meghalaya, the NPF in Manipur, the SKM in Sikkim, and an independent (Naba Kumar Sarania) in Assam have one seat each. For over six decades, the northeastern states had been a stronghold of the Congress, but over the years, the party lost its organizational base, leading to the emergence of the BJP and several regional parties. In the past nine years, many prominent leaders in the northeast have left the Congress, including Himanta Biswa Sarma, Sushmita Dev, and Ripun Bora (Assam), Manik Saha and Ratan Lal Nath (Tripura), N. Biren Singh (Manipur), Pema Khandu (Arunachal Pradesh), Neiphiu Rio (Nagaland), and Mukul Sangma and Ampareen Lyngdoh (Meghalaya), dealing a severe blow to the party.

The Chief Ministers of five northeastern states -- Himanta Biswa Sarma (Assam), Manik Saha (Tripura), N. Biren Singh (Manipur), Pema Khandu (Arunachal Pradesh), and Neiphiu Rio (Nagaland) -- are all former Congress leaders. The BJP, with two MLAs, supports the Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government led by the NPP, which is headed by Chief Minister Conrad K. Sangma.

In Mizoram, which will go to the polls this year-end, a multi-cornered contest is likely between the ruling MNF and the opposition Congress and other local parties in both the Assembly polls and next year's Lok Sabha elections. Recently in Guwahati, the Congress held a meeting of 10 opposition parties after excluding Lok Sabha MP Badruddin Ajmal's All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), the Aam Aadmi Party, and the Trinamool Congress. Assam Congress President Bhupen Bora, who called the meeting, said that they would check the division of votes in next year's Lok Sabha polls in Assam, as the BJP always gets electoral mileage due to the division of votes among the non-BJP parties.

Barman, the son of former Congress Chief Minister of Tripura Samir Ranjan Barman, said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, other Central ministers, and BJP leaders are making tall claims about the development of the northeast region, but most of the big infrastructure projects, including railway projects, in the region were undertaken during the UPA rule. "If we see the BJP's electoral performance in the northeastern region, the party got 60 seats both in the 2016 and 2021 Assembly polls in Assam, an equal number of seats in Nagaland (12) and Meghalaya (2) in the 2018 and 2023 Assembly elections, while the party's seat share reduced by four in Tripura as compared to its 2018 tally," said Barman, who rejuvenated the party in Tripura after joining the Congress from the BJP in February last year. (IANS)

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