Tripura Govt. Claims 'Phenomenal' Economic Growth Despite Pandemic, Opposition Calls it 'Jumla'

Agartala:

Tripura has achieved economic prosperity even in the middle of the Covid-19 outbreak, with per capita income exceeding the national average, the state announced on Tuesday. According to Law Minister Ratan Lal Nath, the state's Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) increased significantly in the fiscal year that ended in March. 

The ruling BJP lauded the achievement as "phenomenal," claiming that primary sector growth, particularly in agriculture and agri-allied industries, had contributed significantly to economic improvement despite the current pandemic. 

Tripura Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb said the economy had suffered a hit nationally after the Covid-19 induced shutdown during the first wave of pandemic last year, and he called to boost growth in the primary sector.

A year later, while governments throughout the country continue to grapple with the second wave of the novel coronavirus pandemic, his government argues that this approach has been successful.

Speaking to the press, Nath stated that Tripura's GSDP was Rs. 59,752.61 crore in the 2020-21 fiscal year, with a rising trend over the previous few fiscal years. He also emphasised the increase in per capita income. "Per capita income in Tripura is Rs 1,31,128 in 2020-21 against Rs 1,25,191 in 2019-20, Rs 1,12,849 in the previous financial year and Rs. 1,00,444 in the year before that," he said. 

However, the state vice-president of the rival Congress party, Tapas Dey, argued that the government's claim of economic improvement is "unrealistic" and cannot be taken as factual because it is based on "estimation" rather than a report. 

"It is a jugglery of statistics. The state government has created an elite class under their patronage; people, by and large, are facing hard days. This claim of economic growth is far from the ground reality. The biggest problem in Tripura today is unemployment, farmer crises and lack of money flow in the market," Dey said.

While the government did not specify the source of its statistics, it is consistent with what was highlighted in the Economic Review of Tripura, 2019-20 – the most recent version of one of the most thorough economic studies released by the Directorate of Economics & Statistics.

This report stated that the average annual growth rate in real terms or constant prices of Net State Domestic Product (NSDP) for 2018-19 (1st Revision) was 11.3 percent, putting Tripura's per capita income higher than the national average and estimating reduced but positive growth even in the pandemic year.

Due to the lockdown and stagnation of the economy, the growth rate fell to 9.6 percent in 2019-20 and is likely to fall to 5.9 percent in 2020-21.

According to Professor Indraneel Bhowmik of Tripura University, the growth rate in Tripura has declined owing to the pandemic, but it has not shrunk as in other states due to an expansion in the primary sector like as agriculture and fishery, which rose by more than 10%. While asserting that economic growth is "naturally happening," Bhowmik stated that the statistics presented in the Tripura Economic Review is not the final report for 2020-21 and is merely a "quick estimate." 

"Effects of the pandemic would be reflected in the 2021-22 report," he said, adding: "In the national economy, the contraction was mainly due to the secondary and tertiary sector. The impact visible in major parts of the country was not visible in Tripura due to less weight of the secondary sector here. The pandemic also had a lesser effect on GSDP. For the national economy, per capita income has decreased but it grew in Tripura, although the growth was reduced." 

Dr. Salim Shah, another economist from Tripura University, stated that both GSDP and per capita income has been growing in recent years. However, he stated that this expansion does not always indicate strong fiscal prosperity. 

"The clinical symptoms of the economy, particularly during the lockdown, have shown Tripura is suffering from an unbearable unemployment rate of 21 per cent. Rubber market is in a bad shape and large-scale exports are suffering," he said.

"The pandemic has affected the nation and Tripura is no exception. But there has been phenomenal progress in health infrastructure and management of several other sectors which would prove highly beneficial," BJP spokesperson Nabendu Bhattacharya said, adding that analysts believe economic improvement would be more obvious beginning in June of this year.

"There has been considerable work in the medium and small enterprises, agriculture and agri-allied industry, etc. These sectors are flourishing. Their positive influence is visible in the state's economy as development in these sectors are happening despite the pandemic," Bhattacharya said.

Bijan Dhar, a veteran CPI(M) politician and state Left Front coordinator, dismissed the state government's claim of financial strength as "jumla." 

"There is no stellar performance of state government during this time, nor is there any huge flow of funds that would propel GSDP growth or per capita income at a rate higher than the national average. It is a provisional report and needs to be scrutinised by the Government of India," Dhar said. 

The veteran communist leader also argued that Tripura is facing a labour shortage, that MGNREGA wages have been withheld for months, that almost no work is being done on railway and infrastructure development projects, and that a large portion of the development would have to be attributed to central and state-sponsored welfare projects.

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